September 6, 2016

Cauvery Dispute and a looming crisis of states - A statistical take

Cauvery has been a bone of contention for not the states of Karnataka and TamilNadu but also been a playful jibe between myself and my folks-in-law, for the love of their mother-state. So any argument Ive had on Cauvery was to be reasoned and cautious as taking blind side for my state could hurt someone who otherwise thinks differently. For long enough, I told them the story told here and understood the stories being told there and have commonly lamented the lack of quantifiable action on changing climate by any govt, including the current bunch ( Discussions on that are gems to be preserved for later :)) Now, that has always lead me to reach out to the neutral source and figure out if the Kannadigas are the nambiars that we are made to believe or if the Tamils were the blood-sucking leeches as we have been portrayed.

Where people and press failed to provide sanity, science and maths live. And over there one can live at peace.

Rainfall-Water and Semantics
While it is not anyone's claim that the rainfall in SW monsoon is deficit, a mere look at statistics say that the shortfall is in the tune of 30%. Look at the storage of 4, 5, 6, 7. The statuses of dams across Cauvery in Karnataka.

While it is seen apparent that the water levels are 30% shorter than capacity. Turn around to Geography - Kabini is in Mysore district and KRS in Mandya!  Now, look at the average rainfall these catchment districts - include Kodugu as well get in September, October.

So, monsoon is still not over and we might have to wait until we see the end of it to state if the rainfall falls short by <30 50="" across="" all="" and="" as="" claimed="" leading="" or="" p="" panic="" protests="" to="" violent="">Look carefully at the last column that says Cumulative Rainfall for the season. It doesnt look that bad! Actually, the rainfall for the season less than normal and as the picture above states. The monsoon is far from over today.

Now, this doesnt satisfy me! I am looking for rainfall forecasts by IMD. What do they say for Karnataka for September and October?
What does IMD say

Now, that still doesnt satisfy me!
What happened last year? Well, there is an average of 10% more rainfall than normal in the three districts of Kodugu, Mysore and Mandya!

Whats really happening is an panic attempt to save all the water - despite the amount of rain predicted post-monsoon well into January and label it as drinking water crisis within Karnataka. 

What is also obvious is that the Kodugu hill district, the real catchment area for Cauvery water is now getting lesser and lesser rainfall over the years, triggering these sets of panic waves and a closer look needs to be given to see the reason for the poor monsoon in the district!